Defence first

Although there may be little to look forward to with confidence, it is to be hoped that unity among UN and NATO members will lead to some optimism for a peaceful outcome in the world's hotspots says GDR editor, David Oliver.


Last year was a year of recovery from the aftermath of September 11 the previous year. In a relatively bloodless conflict, America and its British ally rid Afghanistan of the al-Qaeda-supporting Taliban regime, driving Bin Laden's terrorists deeper underground. They surfaced again in Bali and Kenya and continued their threats to maintain attacks on America and its allies.

The Israeli-Palestine conflict also continued unabated and by the end of the year the two sides were further apart than they had been for more than a decade while India and Pakistan came close to war yet again over Kashmir. At the same time America's focus shifted to what President Bush calls the axis of evil, namely Iraq, Iran and North Korea and at the beginning of 2003, the world looks an ever more dangerous place.

Skirmishes between warlords and guerrilla fighters have broken out again in Afghanistan; North Korea, having withdrawn from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, threatens to reduce the whole of Korea to ashes if America threatens it, and America and Britain are on the brink of war with Saddam Hussein in the name of the United Nations.

As almost 250,000 soldiers, sailors and airmen assemble on Iraq's borders, war in the middle east is inevitable. While there is no doubting that American power and technology can defeat Saddam Hussein's forces, the international community is seriously divided over the wisdom of such an act. This split is threatening the integrity of the United Nations and, perhaps even more seriously, the very foundations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

In answer to the question of whether NATO should deploy to defend Turkey in the event of an Iraqi attack if or when war is declared, Germany, France and Belgium were adamantly opposed to such a move. This brought them into direct conflict with America, Britain, Spain and Italy, leaving NATO Secretary General, Sir George Robertson to face the biggest crisis of his career.

As we go to press some of these issues have been resolved while others have not, but there can be no doubt that defence in all its aspects will remain high on the world's agenda during the coming year.