The future for defence in an uncertain world

The change of regime in the White House on 20 January 2001 could be of major significance on the global defence scene. The new administration has ambitious plans to boost defence spending, deploy national missile defences and re-cast America's commitments around the world.

Time will tell if President George W Bush's vision for America's defence and foreign policy is translated into action but it will be fascinating to watch his team formulating and trying to articulate these new policies.

The embryonic European Union rapid-reaction force will be the centre of attention in Europe's capitals as the debate gathers momentum over turning rhetoric into action. Only if Europe comes up with new money to fund new capabilities for the force are Washington's fears likely to be eased.

Around the world, Africa and the middle east remain unstable with low-level conflicts threatening to burst into life in Sierra Leone, Congo, the Great Lakes region, Palestine/Israel, Lebanon and in Iraq.

Defence spending in the middle east, south Asia and the far east is still rising as major regional powers jockey for dominance against their local rivals and the United States.

The major defence companies continue to come to terms with the implications of the past decade's drive towards globalism. The need to cut costs, to boost export markets and to compensate for post-cold-war falls in defence spending, are driving this trend that still has a long way to go.

This issue of Global Defence Review, the first of the new millennium, looks at all these issues as well as developments in defence technology and military science. We hope it stimulates debate and remains on your bookshelf as an essential reference tool throughout the year. In case you were not aware, this year's edition is available online with all previous editions of Global Defence Review and its sister publications, ETS News and Global Enforcement Review, at http://www.global-defence.com.

We hope these publications help you make the right choices in 2001. The global defence market promises to be lively and fast moving. To paraphrase a famous Chinese philosopher, we live in interesting times.

As the political climate changes where it most matters, so speculation about the effects of globalisation on defence budgets adds further to gathering storm clouds