Among the new designs that may be available for export, Spain, that has built the French Daphne and Agosta-class boats under licence, has developed a new design in collaboration with DCN, dubbed Scorpene. Brazil has chosen the German Type 209 design as a model for its licensed indigenous production and development programme. South Korea is also in the process of developing a German submarine design that initially will be available only for the domestic market.

In addition to those countries pursuing indigenous construction and development schemes, some states are more interested in acquiring advanced second-hand non-nuclear submarines. The recent sale of four UK Upholder-class SSKs to Canada for a budget-friendly US$750m, approximately one-quarter the cost of procuring new boats, is an excellent example of how the horizontal proliferation of second-hand conventional submarines will continue to provide operationally advanced USW capabilities to a broad range of potential customers at a low cost.

A brief look at the current worldwide market prospects for some of the major producers of SSKs will sharpen the picture outlined by the geopolitical and defence-policy-driven changes affecting the future of conventional submarines in a global supply-side context.

France

Traditionally, the export markets for the Daphne and Agosta-class submarines have been Pakistan, Portugal, South Africa and Spain. Following the initial success of these designs in the export market during the 1960s and 1970s, France has not succeeded in exporting either of these designs to other countries.

The collaborative effort between France (DCN) and Spain (Bazan) to develop the new Scorpene design may assist France in expanding its export customer base, notably in Latin America. The contract signed between Chile and DNC in 1997 for the delivery of the Scorpene in 2003 makes DNC/Bazan's new boat a more likely future choice than the Agosta for other countries.

The most likely area of expansion for France will be in south east Asia, in spite of long-term German and recent Swedish domination of this lucrative market. The announcement recently that DNC and Celsius AB of Sweden have agreed to give technical co-operation in support of future submarine designs suggests that collaborative ventures on SSK development and construction may become the rule rather than the exception. In addition to the DCN/Celsius agreement, both companies have indicated that other parties also will be integrated into the consortium. This agreement has the potential to extend DCN's market influence, using Sweden's notoriety to its advantage. The ramifications of this most recent development on the proliferation of French SSKs, however, will remain a subject of speculation for some time to come.

Germany
German non-nuclear submarine designs have dominated the world markets for more than 20 years. The cornerstone of German export success is the Type 209 and variants Type 209, 1100, 1200, 1300, 1400 and 1500. Currently 12 navies operate 41 Type 209/1100-1500s. The design's longevity generally is attributable to Germany's commitment to extend the service lives of existing boats. Howaldtswerke Deutsche Werft AG (HDW) and Ingenieurkontor Lubeck (IKL), together with other German companies, have developed a series of modifications that can be backfitted to older Type 209s to extend their operational lives to about 30 years.

In addition to the Type 209, Thyssen Nordseewerke has developed the TR 1700 design that features an emergency underwater sprint speed in excess of 25 knots. Other features include high submerged endurance, low indiscretion and high survivability. These features combine with considerable offensive capability to establish the TR 1700 as a formidable threat across the spectrum of capabilities.

The latest German design is the Type 212 on order for Germany and Italy, capable of long-distance submerged passage to the area of operation. The estimated cost for the Type 212 is a budget-friendly US$250m. It will enter service with the German navy in September 2003 and with the Italian navy in October 2004. Equipped with AIP and highly automated control systems, the Type 212 will be Germany's most advanced SSK export design to date. Sources suggest that the design goal is to permit submerged cruising for up to 3,000 miles at four knots, inferring quiet, submerged endurance for more than a month.

The IKL Dolphin-class design developed for the Israeli navy is being built in Germany by HDW and Thyssen Nordseewerke, with financial assistance from the US and German governments. The Dolphin offers considerable stealth capabilities that are to be exploited chiefly in the interdiction role. The Dolphin will have the capability to deploy and recover SOFs in addition to a payload of torpedoes and sub-harpoon missiles. Delivery of the Dolphins began in 1998, and all three will be operational with the Israeli navy by 2000. Traditionally the German export market has included Latin America, Denmark, Greece, India, Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Norway and Turkey. Germany's history of submarine design excellence and aggressive marketing strategies has helped it maintain its position as the pre-eminent exporter of USW technology.

So far as the other major markets for German designs are concerned, Greece, Turkey and South Korea continue to be a focus of German export strategy. While the dynamic between Greece and Turkey remains unstable, it is likely that any attempt to enhance existing SSK technology by one side will surely be matched by the other. In such a situation Germany will be most likely to continue supplying submarines to both states. Recently Turkey and Germany have signed a US$556m contract for the co-production of four Preveze (T 209) class submarines for the Turkish naval forces command (TNFC). The new vessels will join the navy between 2003-06. Turkey has expressed early interest in the Type 212 as a replacement for its obsolete Guppy/Tang-class submarines in order to aid specialised operations in the littoral regions of the Aegean and Black Sea.

To date the Type 212 project most likely will be the next German design to achieve export success. The continued monopoly over contracts with the Israeli navy will also ensure lasting German success in that market through long-term life support and equipment maintenance.

Russia
The Russian-built Kilo-class SSK is considered by many to be the most robust SSK of its kind. Although several European types are more advanced in many respects than the Project Varshavyanka Kilo 877EKM and Project 636 Kilo, Russia offers export customers a well-proven design with the added advantage of an extremely low acoustic signature. The 887 design has proven most successful with navies of Algeria, India, Iran, Poland and Romania.

In addition to the Project 877E Kilos purchased by China and Iran, Poland operates one boat, India has nine and Romania one, for a total of 20. India took delivery of the first of the two additional Russian-built Kilo class submarines in January. The INS Sindhurakshak is the first of a two-boat contract between the Indian MoD and the Russian navy worth US$1.57bn.

So far China is the only known customer for the ultra-quiet 636 and it has ordered two. India's tenth Kilo might turn out to be a 636 as well. In the Russian fleet it is estimated that three variants of the Kilo 877 exist: the basic 877; the 877K that has an improved fire-control system; and the 877M that has wire-guided torpedoes from two tubes. Some sources suggest that a single Kilo has been outfitted with a pump-jet propulsor to improve stealth.

Russian development of SSKs recently has received a boost by the Rubin Design Bureau's announcement of the successor to the Kilo 887, the Amur (or Lada) class SSK. The Amur will be the most advanced export design to date and will incorporate many of the signature-reduction technologies proven so successful on the Project 636 Kilo, notably anechoic tile coatings and a skewed seven-bladed propeller.

The export success of the Kilo and the future success of the Amur-class submarines will depend largely on their affordability. If Russia is to remain a significant force in the export market for SSKs into the 21st century, its ties with the former WARPAC countries and states such as India, Algeria and Iran must be fostered.

The success or failure of old and new Russian export designs will rest in large measure on the competition. In many instances, however, the west will not sell submarines to countries such as Iran or China. In this light development of designs such as the Amur are likely to continue, as are sales of Kilos to countries such as Iran, India and China.

Sweden
Sweden currently is exerting major influence on the non-nuclear submarine market. In the Baltic, the Swedish navy is operating the first purpose-built AIP submarines in the world: three Gotland (Type A19) class boats designed by Kockums Submarine Systems and Sweden's Defence Materiel Administration (FMV). The Gotlands are powered by two Mk2 model Kockums V4-275R Stirling engines that increase submerged operation time sevenfold over SSKs not equipped with AIP. The role of the AIP-equipped Gotland class, according to one Kockum's official, is increased combat effectiveness and non-provocative peacetime intelligence gathering or deterrence operations.

In addition to the new Gotland design, the Swedish shipbuilders also have designed a new-generation Type 471 SSK, the Collins class, for delivery to the Royal Australian Navy. Construction of Collins-class submarines is being carried out by the Australian Submarine Corporation in Adelaide, South Australia with the bow and escape tower sections of the first submarines to be built in Sweden. The unique modular design allows sections to be built to near-completion before being transported to a central assembly site. The new Type 471s will feature an extremely low acoustic signature, a range of 11,500 miles at 10 knots surfaced and a submerged speed of 20 knots. Although not fitted with AIP modules, the Collins class will be able to have AIP backfitted. The Collins will have the capacity for up to 22 missiles and torpedoes, and up to 44 mines in place of torpedoes. SSM capability is provided by the McDonnell Douglas sub-harpoon system, and will be accompanied by a highly integrated combat system linking C41 and fire-control systems supplied by Rockwell Collins Ship Systems Australia.

In addition to these development projects, Kockums, under direction of the Swedish FMV, also is involved in pre-feasibility studies on Submarine 2000, a new design for the 21st century to replace the Type A19 Gotland class. Early indications are that Submarine 2000 will place even more emphasis on stealth (AIP) and manoeuvrability, and on enhanced C41 and combat system performance.

The sale of the Collins class to Australia, combined with the excellence of much of the Swedish equipment and favourable terms and conditions has meant that Sweden now is poised to break into areas where German designs traditionally have dominated. Together with Germany, Sweden most likely will dominate the world market for at least the next ten to 15 years. Sweden has achieved tremendous export success and also is the first country to operate front-line AIP submarines. In the future, when AIP undoubtedly will become standard, early successes with AIP will make Sweden a major player for contracts with navies seeking both new and second-hand submarines, as well as for modernisation and upgrade packages.

Despite the end of the cold war and a marked reduction in surface warship orders, the number of navies operating submarines continues to increase, as does the number of shipyards capable of constructing them. The strength of the current submarine market, both in terms of supply and demand, is manifest by the numerous development and modernisation programmes that range from new-vessel construction to COTS technology solutions. The reason for this is simple: SSKs have a strategic impact that is far out of proportion to their numbers and basic cost, especially for small navies.