The cohesion of the Saudi state was put under severe stresses this year and the fact that it withstood pressures from many diverse sources is a testament to the strength of the ruling royal bonds governing Saudi Arabia. These pressures range from domestic political forces to a budget deficit that has forced the government to alter its traditionally generous spending. For a country that devotes one-third of its total funding to defence, these fissures have had and will continue to have a direct impact on defence-planning priorities and expenditure.
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Saudi National Guard, one of the three branches responsible for national security TIM RIPLEY |
Saudi Arabia is a traditional monarchy ruled by descendants of the founder of the state, King Abdul Aziz Al Saud. King Fahd has held the throne since 1982. There is no written constitution, popularly elected assemblies, nor political parties. The legitimacy of the royal regime has been perpetuated by an arrangement whereby Saudi subjects' loyalty is offered in exchange for the magnanimity of the state to its subjects and its perceived adherence to Wahabism, a conservative form of Islam.
This arrangement has proved fragile because there are insufficient resources to support the infrastructure and volatile sections of the Saudi populace are demanding political change. The Saudi economy is linked so inexorably to world oil prices that the stagnancy of the market over the past 10 years has had a significant impact on Saudi finances. Though prices have improved recently, the Saudis are attempting to diversify the private sector of the economy to counter the fluctuations of the world oil market. Compounding this is the $55 billion debt accrued from the Persian Gulf War.
Political dissent is coming from two directions. The first is from young, western-educated reformers pushing for democratic change. The other is the conservative Muslim establishment that is demanding a stricter adherence to Sharia and a move away from western influence.
For a country that prides itself on maintaining law and order, the bombings of US military installations in November 1995 and June 1996 were a shock. The message sent was clear but it is uncertain who the messenger was. The four militants apprehended for the Riyadh bombing said they were influenced by foreign Islamic groups. Iran denies involvement but as one Saudi journalist indicated in the Middle East Reporter: "The official line wants to put the blame on foreign influence, but privately people are saying that it's a home-grown phenomenon."
A by-product of these militant actions has been a sharp focus on security matters in Saudi Arabia. All three branches of government responsible for security, the Ministry of the Interior, Ministry of Defence and the National Guard, have made public statements about the need for change. Both the Ministry of Defence and the National Guard announced plans to increase military spending and expand their armed forces to take more responsibility for their defence in the aftermath of these terrorist incidents. These plans have made western military planners wonder about the wisdom of modernisation and expansion of Saudi armed forces when they are unable to absorb the spectrum of advanced weapon systems they own currently.
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US foreign military sales accounted for 67 per cent of Saudi military orders during the 1991-1994 period and included AWACS TIM RIPLEY |
Although the Saudi government did not release its 1996 defence budget, it is projected to be at least as large as last year's ($13.2 billion) and the largest single expenditure within the overall $40 billion budget. Saudi Arabia continues to be the largest arms purchaser in the region and accounts for nearly one-third of outlays. Driven by concerns about a resurgent Iraq and the sophisticated military machine being developed by Iran, Saudi Arabia has spent over $30 billion on defence since the Gulf War.
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Saudi will take delivery of 48 Tornado strike aircraft over the next two years BRITISH AEROSPACE |
The US foreign military sales programme accounted for 67 per cent of Saudi military orders in the 1991-1994 period. It includes F-15s, AWACS, missiles, air defence weaponry and military vehicles. Deliveries of 72 F-15s began late 1995 and are expected to continue at a rate of one a month until 2001. In accordance with the same contract, 212 light armoured vehicles (LAV-25) of a total order of 1,117 for the National Guard were received this year. The second round of British deliveries of 48 Tornado strike aircraft are expected in the 1996-1998 period and 20 Hawk advanced trainers in the 1996-1997 period. Twenty PC-9 primary trainers are due by the end of 1996. The French have secured important contracts with Saudi naval forces and are performing upgrades on four F-2000 frigates. Although most of the upgrades are minor, the ships' nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) contamination detection and protection systems also are being improved. Two La Fayette class air defence ships are due for delivery by 1998. These are to be supported by extensive maintenance and over-haul facilities built in Jeddah by the French.
Helped by American agreement to reschedule payments and delay deliveries on $10 billion in arms purchases, plans were announced in summer 1996 to expand the armed forces by the year 2000. Defence Minister Prince Sultan indicated that the current five-year plan will include further arms acquisitions, but that the priority will be to attract recruits to attain the goal of 200,000 in manpower. The larger goal is to transform the traditional brigade-based command structure into divisions, with land forces comprising seven or eight divisions. Crown Prince Abdullah, National Guard Commander and caretaker of the state while King Fahd recovered from a stroke at the beginning of the year, declared his goal of building up National Guard forces from 80,000 to 100,000 in the same period with at least three heavy mechanised and armoured brigades.
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The National Guard took delivery of 212 Light Armoured Vehicles during 1996 CREDIT: DELCO ELECTRONICS |
The army currently has over 70,000 troops organised into one airborne, three armoured, and five mechanised brigades; eight artillery battalions; and an aviation command. The armoured units are being equipped with 315 General Dynamics Land Systems.
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Saudi Arabia plan to expand their armed forces by the year 2000 TIM RIPLEY |
The Saudi Air Force of 18,000 is the largest and most advanced in the Gulf Co-operation Council. It is moving towards a fighter force of 300 with an advanced command and control system. There are 4,000 troops in the Air Defence Force.
The navy is receiving considerable attention and this is reflected in a greater level of funding than in the past. Iranian acquisition of Russian Kilo class submarines undoubtedly spurred Saudi procurement of the two air defence frigates and its efforts to obtain ASW helicopters.
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The Saudi Air Force is the most advanced in the Gulf Co-operation Council TIM RIPLEY |
The Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG) is separate from the regular forces and considered the most powerful political arm of the Saudi military. The strength of the force derives from its strong tribal roots linked to the royal family. The SANG largely is a Bedouin force established to maintain internal security. The number of troops has risen from 35,000 during the Gulf War to 57,000 and 20,000 tribal levies. If Crown Prince Abdullah ascends to the throne after King Fahd, he can be expected to expand the SANG to ensure his own military strength.
