While at the 1994 show competitive tendencies were at the fore with high-profile contests being fought out in public over the British Army's attack helicopter requirement and the future large aircraft (FLA), the themes for 1996 were European defence-industry consolidation and international co-operation.
From a high point of $60 billion in 1993 the world defence market has been in steady decline, to record a total of just $41 billion in 1995. British government market research expects the market to level out at $39 billion until the end of the decade when a number of major projects will begin to boost sales back upwards. Not surprisingly this long-term confidence was reflected at Farnborough where the world's aerospace companies were happy the post-cold war uncertainty in the defence market was a thing of the past.
The link-up of the British and French missile makers BAe Dynamics and Lagardere in August 1996 on the back of the UK government's decision to buy a version of Matra's Apache cruise missile for its conventional stand-off missile (CASOM) requirement, proved an appropriate back-drop to the show. The new company hopes to start what is termed a critical mass of a new European super-missile enterprise and as its first move it is joining forces in a bid to buy out Thomson SA when eventually it is privatised by the French government.
With joint assets of $1.5 billion and an order book of $4 billion, Matra-BAe Dynamics is gearing up to capture the $1.2 billion UK order for the future medium range air-to-air missile (FMRAAM) requirement. America's Hughes and France's Aerospatiale also announced they had joined forces with Britain's Short Missile Systems to produce a rival ramjet powered missile for the FMRAAM competition.
BAe was also much in demand as a partner in the US joint strike fighter (JSF) contest, with Boeing and Lockheed Martin making overtures to draw them away from the rival McDonnell Douglas/Northrop Grumman team. A production run of up to 5,000 air frames including exports will mean the whole project could be worth approximately $190 billion. The US Department of Defense (DoD) decided in November 1996 to select the Boeing and Lockheed Martin teams to take the project forward to the building of demonstrator aircraft. The JSF is intended to replace the F-16 as a light strike fighter for close air support and battlefield combat missions, ashore and from aircraft carriers.
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The Tornado GR4 TIM RIPLEY |
Farnborough was a chance for the contenders to show off their rival concepts and court BAe and other European aerospace manufacturers as potential partners. The Royal Navy has a requirement for JSFs to replace its Sea Harrier vertical take off aircraft and other nations are expected to join if the projects produce a cost-effective replacement for the F-16. BAe was tied to McDonnell Douglas in an exclusive deal but both Lockheed Martin and Boeing said at Farnborough that they would be keen to take on board the British military aircraft manufacturer if it lost out in the initial selection to build the demonstrator.
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Matra-BAe Dynamics is gearing up to capture the $1.2 billion UK order for the future medium range air-to-air missile (FMRAAM) requirement TIM RIPLEY |
BAe also used Farnborough as a vehicle to float their ideas for the next generation of European future offensive aircraft (FOA) as follow-on to replace the Tornado strike aircraft. The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) is studying a number of options from manned stealth-type aircraft to what are termed uninhabited vehicles or pilotless aircraft. Upgrades of existing aircraft, such as the Eurofighter and Tornado, are not considered by BAe to be up to the job, so a major project is necessary to build a new aircraft. The JSF, while containing some of the features of the FOA, is not considered large enough to carry the ordnance and systems needed to penetrate deep behind enemy lines to destroy strategic targets.
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The GKN Westland Super Lynx frigate based helicopter TIM RIPLEY |
France also is believed to be interested in the project that would provide a natural successor in Europe's aircraft factories to the Eurofighter and Dassault's Rafale. The bringing together of Dassault and BAe, along with the Germans, Italians and Spanish, to build the FOA would be the catalyst to forge a pan-European military aircraft to rival the American giants.
The British government used Farnborough as a platform to increase pressure on its European partners in the controversial Eurofighter project. British Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine and Defence Secretary Michael Portillo announced that the UK had agreed to put the Eurofighter into production. Germany's parliament has still to decide to proceed with the production phase of the Anglo-Italian-Spanish- German programme and the British hoped to increase pressure to ensure that they remain fully involved.
The Eurofighter made its long-awaited debut at Farnborough airshow with the British prototype thrilling crowds everyday with dramatic flying displays. The Spanish two seater prototype also crossed a major milestone prior to the show by making its first test flight.
Farnborough saw a stabilisation in the merger mania that had gripped the US defence industry over the past three years. The Boeing takeover of the Rockwell defence and space business looks like being the last consolidation for some time. The JSF project may see some strategic re-teaming but the large US defence giants, including McDonnell Douglas, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Hughes, Lockheed Martin and United Technologies, made noises at Farnborough indicating that they were in consolidation rather than expansion mode.
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Lockheed Martin's F-16 Fighting Falcon; the company has led the way in industry consolidation TIM RIPLEY |
Lockheed Martin has led the way in the head-long dash for consolidation, bringing together Lockheed, Martin Marietta, General Dynamics and now Loral. The new company put together a combined pavilion at Farnborough showing off its new-found strength across a wide range of defence markets.
British helicopter manufacturer GKN Westland had a significant presence at Farnborough on the back of its success in winning major UK MoD contracts to supply new EH-101 Merlin anti-submarine, SH-101 support and WAH-64D attack helicopters. The company is in the middle of a major export drive to sell its new Super Lynx frigate-based helicopter in the Far East and Europe, confirming that there is still a market for mature products.
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Progress on the UK Apache programme is steady with 80 per cent of the sub-contracts allocated TIM RIPLEY |
Progress on the UK Apache programme is steady with 80 per cent of the sub-contracts for everything from engines to missiles allocated. GKN Westland and a number of major sub-contractors were using Farnborough to conclude the remaining deals.
The Franco-German Eurocopter had an uncomfortable week with rumours circulating of more German defence cuts undermining orders for the company's Tiger attack helicopter. The NH-90 support helicopter project also is troubled because Germany and France are continuing to re-prioritise their defence budgets.
A noticeable absentee from Farnborough was the new Lockheed Martin C-130J Super Hercules that was still in the middle of its intensive flight-testing programme at the company's Georgia plant. The British compromise of opting to buy both the C-130J and European future large aircraft (FLA) is now beginning to look like a wise move, given the uncertainty surrounding the FLA because of French defence cuts. Paris is no longer willing to bankroll the FLA and other European countries are also having second thoughts. Lockheed Martin sees great potential for the C-130J and it is now proposing to produce a C-141 replacement that will offer plenty of competition for the FLA if it ever flies.
Yet again the presence of the Sukhoi fighters in the Farnborough flying display provided plenty of thrills and spills for the crowds, particularly the new thrust vector Su-37 strike fighter.
Behind the aerobatics, the Russian aviation industry continues to struggle to stay alive in the face of massive defence cutbacks at home. Russian military purchases have all but ceased and research and development have had to be severely curtailed. The only bright spot on the horizon for the Russian aviation industry has been a resurgence of fighter exports. The sale of several Sukhoi Su-27s to China and Vietnam brought a multi-billion dollar boost to the company and increased Russian defence exports by a figure of five at a stroke. The deal comes close on the heels of the sale of MiG-29 fighters to Malaysia. The Kamov helicopter company took its Ka-50 Warewolf helicopter to Farnborough but this impressive machine has yet to make it into frontline Russian service because of funding cuts. A similar fate has befallen its rival the Mil Mi-28.
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Farnborough'96 saw high-profile attendance from many of the major names in the defence industry TIM RIPLEY |
Ukraine's Antonov was at Farnborough trying to establish a European partnership to fund construction of the company's An-70 transport. The break from the Soviet Union has separated the company from its former customers in Soviet air forces and there is a massive market of secondhand large transports in Russia, making it difficult to generate support for new aircraft.
With Farnborough over, all eyes in the aerospace industry are now turning to the Paris air-show in June 1997. With continuing cutbacks in the French defence budget casting a shadow over the country's aerospace industry, the Paris show will be the place to see how far the shake-down will go. Few pundits expect many of the giants of the French aerospace industry to emerge unscathed from this bruising process.
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After Farnborough the next major date on the aerospace calender is the Paris airshow in June 1997 TIM RIPLEY |
